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Machine Learning for Financial Statement Analysis and Forecast: A Case Study of Guaranty Trust Holding Company PLC (GTCO).

Authors

Ayomide Oluwadamilola Sobowale, Joshua Sopuru

Abstract

This thesis explores the integration of machine learning techniques into financial statement analysis and forecasting within the context of the Nigerian Banking Industry. The primary objectives are to predict the financial health and profitability of companies, enhance data-driven investment decisions, reduce the risk of financial losses for investors, and advance the application of machine learning in finance by substituting traditional analysis methods. The study focuses on GTCO, a prominent entity listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Initially, traditional annual report analysis serves as a foundation for understanding the company's financial performance. Subsequently, a predictive model is developed using four machine learning algorithms: Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbour, Logistic Regression, and Naïve Bayes. The outcomes of this research contribute to a nuanced understanding of machine learning's efficacy in financial analysis, offering a potential paradigm shift from conventional methodologies. The proposed model not only aids in predicting financial health and profitability but also empowers investors with valuable insights, mitigating financial risks in the dynamic Nigerian Banking Industry. This study thus marks a pivotal step towards fostering a data-driven investment landscape and embracing machine learning applications in financial decision-making.

Keywords

Financial Statement, Annual Report, Machine Learning Algorithms, Machine Learning Models, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbour, Logistics Regression, Naïve Bayes

DOI

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